Saturday, February 11, 2006

NFL Mock Draft version 3.1

This mock got delayed a few days due to some computer problems. When I wasn't dealing with that I was trying to crash classes which was working out equally as bad. Anybody know where to get a good (for cheap) laptop?

Certainly some twists in this one, including three trades. In the end I really think Vince Young has to go #1. Houston signed on Carr for the next three years, so it won't be them. Love it or hate it for your team, feel free to drop me a line.

Now all eyes will be on the combine which starts on the 22nd. That week will shake things up like always--should be fun. A lot will hinge on Young's workout a the combine. He's one of the few top QB prospects to actually throw there in recent history.

1 JETS (trade w/HOU) Vince Young QB Texas
I really think Houston will trade out of this spot if they get the right deal. Domanick Davis can be a stud in Gary Kubiak's offense--a perfect fit. If Reggie Bush put up Davis-esque numbers he'd be considered a success. And if Kubiak is really as high on Carr as he says, then trading out of #1 is a no-brainer. I think Vince Young will shake out as the #1 prospect. He's got too much to pass up; arm, athleticism, size, strength, poise and all the intangibles you could ask for. New York moves up because at pick 4, they are on the outside looking in. They give up a 3rd this year and a 1st in '07. Similar to the Giants in '04, the Jets are in a market where they need a face to lead the franchise. Chad Pennington has two consecutive shoulder injuries on an already weak right arm. The team has already stated they will bring in a QB. Why sit at #4 and take Cutler or a mediocre free agent, when you can move up and get a star in Young?

2 SAINTS Matt Leinart QB USC
No other pick makes sense here. There's not much else to say. Possibly a trade could surface here, but I don't see a fit that’s worth missing out on a franchise QB for a Franchise that needs one dearly.

3 TITANS Reggie Bush RB USC
Tennessee is in a nice spot here. They get to pay #3 money vs. #1 money but get a #1 talent. Norm Chow knows just how to play with his new toy.

4 TEXANS (from NYJ) Mario Williams DE NC State
D'brickashaw Ferguson, right? Not so fast. The Texans have more problems on defense at this point and OT is a deep position. Mario Williams is a prototype DE for the 4-3 defense that Houston is likely moving back to. After all has settled Williams will be a superior prospect to Ferguson.

5 PACKERS DeAngelo Williams RB Memphis
Right now I can't put LenDale White ahead of DeAngelo. Some could argue AJ Hawk here and they'd have a point. But while DeAngelo Williams was proving to scouts he was the real deal, Hawk was at home leaving us to wonder. Mario Williams would have been the pick here if available.

6 RAIDERS AJ Hawk LB Ohio State
Pretty boring pick here as this has to be one of the most common selections around. But there's a reason why. It fits.

7 DOLPHINS (trade w/ SF) Jay Cutler QB Vanderbilt
Miami is in a spot at #16 where there are too many teams in need of a QB for Cutler to last. They give SF their #16 and #51 selections to leap ahead of Detroit, Arizona and Baltimore.

8 BILLS D'brickashaw Ferguson OT Virgina
You might think Ferguson should go higher, but he's too one-dimentional for me. I think he'll slide out of the top 5. He may fall even farther if DBs are out-lifting him at the combine. That said, Buffalo will very happy to see him here at #8.

9 EAGLES (trade w/ DET) Haloti Ngata DT Oregon
The third and final projected trade in the mock draft. I couldn't find any value for Detroit here, but I could for Philly. Ngata is a stud DT. Philly has shown they aren't afraid to move up and grab a player they covet. If they don't covet Ngata, they should. Detroit gets an extra 3rd.

10 CARDINALS Michael Huff S Texas
Huff has drawn favorable comparisons to Ronnie Lott. While I wouldn't go that far, Huff could make a huge imact in Arizona who needs an active playmaker at the position. Huff and '05 pick Antrel Rolle could be real good together for a long time.

11 RAMS Antonio Cromartie CB Florida State
Somebody has to take control of the crowded CB crop. Cromartie could be that guy. He was the consensus #1 CB coming into the season, but got hurt. He's reportedly healthy and running 4.3s. If that’s true, at 6'3", he may not make it out of the top 10. Look for Cromartie to rise.

12 BROWNS Manny Lawson OLB NC State
Lawson is looking like this year's Demarcus Ware--a player that didn't so much rise up boards in the offseason, but was underappreciated during the regular season. He looked good at the Senior Bowl, but will really shine in workouts with track speed and a 45-inch vertical jump. He fits as a 3-4 rush 'backer in Clevleand.

13 RAVENS LenDale White RB USC
All they need in Baltimore is a back that can move the chains. White can do that and more. If Boller can pick it up and the D stays intact, this team should be back on top.

14 LIONS (from PHI) Brodrick Bunkley DT Penn State
A worthy riser. Bunkley would be the perfect tackle to play next to Shaun Rogers. Those two would wreak havoc on o-lines everywhere. Or Matt Millen could just grab Santonio Holmes.

15 FALCONS Chad Greenway OLB Iowa
Greenway is another player that solidified his status with a strong Senior Bowl week. The combine should only confirm his athleticism and his spot in the top 15.

16 49ers (from Miami) Vernon Davis TE Maryland
Davis is probably the best receiving threat in the draft. Lord knows SF needs help on offense. His speed and strength should make him, by far, the #1 TE prospect. His height (6'2") and position could be the only things to keep him out of the top 10.

17VIKINGSLaurence MaroneyRBMinnesota
Hometown prospect that could really solidify a position that has been up and down for years. Luckily there are enough talented backs for Maroney (a guy who's getting lost in the shuffle) to fall here.

18 COWBOYS Gabe Watson NT Michigan
Dallas has rebuilt their defense over that past two years. Watson would be the always important noseguard, freeing up the rest of the guys to make plays. They took a liking to Watson at the Senior Bowl and can still address the secondary later due to depth.

19 CHARGERS Santonio Holmes
WR Ohio State
Need meets value here. Holmes has positioned himself to be the first WR off the board. Would be a nice big play option to go with Gates and McCardell.

20 CHIEFS Jimmy Williams CB/S Virginia Tech
Once thought of a s a top 10 lock, Williams could be a slider. His best pro position might be safety. And even as a CB, a few players could pass him up.

21 PATRIOTS Tye Hill CB Clemson
There should be a nice run on CBs in the 20s. Hill will sure be among them. He's a great cover guy and has great speed, but being 5'9" will hurt him. He plays bigger than his size, though.

22 BRONCOS Tamba Hali DE Penn State
Hali could become a victim of the numbers game. He also isn't a wowing player. But he is one that does everything pretty well and plays with a motor.

23 BUCCANEERS Jonathan Scott OT Texas
I put Scott on par with Ferguson. He's a very good pass blocker and also one of the better run blockers available. Maybe a better fit on the left side than Marcus McNeil.

24 BENGALS Darnell Bing SS USC
This pick hasn't changed in three mocks now. I usually like to change it up, but this pick just makes too much sense to me. Exactly why it probably won't happen.

25 GIANTS Ashton Youboty CB Ohio State
This is another repeat pick. NY could certainly use a corner with Will Allen becoming a free agent. Youboty just happens to be the best available again, and the last of the upper tier unless Jonathan Joseph can climb into that group with great workouts (which he can).

26 BEARS Dominique Byrd TE USC
Could be a surprise pick to some, but Byrd established himself without much doubt from guys like Marcedes Lewis. There should be a good run on tight ends between the end of the 1st and 2nd rounds.

27 PANTHERS Max Jean-Gilles G Georgia
Jon Fox has a simple philosophy. Play great D and pound the rock. Max Jean-Gilles will contribute to the latter.

28 JAGUARS Mathias Kiwanuka DE Boston College
Kiwi is falling. He looked a little unexplosive at the Senior Bowl. Was it due to his late season leg injury? He'll get one more chance to prove it was. Either way the Jags have shown one draft theme. They like size. Kiwi fits the mold.

29 BRONCOS Ko Simpson S South Carolina
After adressing the pass rush with their first selection, Denver goes with Simpson here to solidify the back end. They've been trying to develop a safety for years. Enough with the projects--team Ko with John Lynch and forget it (well, until Lynch retires).

30 COLTS Demeco Ryans OLB Alabama
Ryans is taylor made for the cover two defense. His postseason workouts won't match the production he shows on the field. No value at RB here so look for a potential trade up by Indy if they don't sign a free agent starter to rep[lace Edge.

31 SEAHAWKS Bobby Carpenter OLB Ohio State
Carpenter can do everything well. He can cover, rush the passer and attack ball carriers. He's a flat out football player that fits on any team in any scheme. Seattle is a little light at LB. He should win the job on the strong side very early.

32 STEELERS Nick Mangold C Ohio State
What do you buy for that friend who has everything? That’s right--a big nasty talented offensive lineman to keep his running game running. Either that or a nice card.

Round 2

33 TEXANS Marcus Mcneill OT Auburn
34 SAINTS Greg Eslinger C Minnesota
35 JETS Winston Justice OT USC
36 PACKERS Abdul Hodge ILB Iowa
37 RAIDERS Rod Wright DT Texas
38 49ERS Kamerion Wimbley OLB Florida State
39 TITANS D'Qwell Jackson ILB Maryland
40 LIONS Stanley McClover DE Auburn
41 CARDINALS Ryan O'Callaghan OT California
42 BILLS Jonathan Joseph CB South Carolina
43 BROWNS Eric Winston OT Miami
44 RAVENS Claude Wroten DT LSU
45 EAGLES Sinorice Moss WR Miami
46 RAMS Leonard Pope TE Georgia
47 FALCONS Pat Watkins S Florida State
48 VIKINGS Dee Webb CB Florida
49 COWBOYS Jason Allen S Tennessee
50 CHARGERS Davin Joseph G Oklahoma
51 49ers (from Miami) Kelly Jennings CB Miami
52 PATRIOTS Joseph Addai RB LSU
53 REDSKINS Donte Whitner S Ohio State
54 CHIEFS Todd Watkins WR BYU
55 BENGALS Marcedes Lewis TE UCLA
56 GIANTS Ernie Sims OLB Florida State
57 BEARS Alan Zamaitis CB Penn State
58 PANTHERS Brian Calhoun RB Wisconsin
59 BUCCANEERS Richard Marshall CB Fresno State
60 JAGUARS Demario Minter CB Georgia
61 BRONCOS Jesse Mahelona DT Tennessee
62 COLTS Kyle Williams DT LSU
63 SEAHAWKS Maurice Stovall WR Notre Dame
64 STEELERS Brad Smith WR Missouri

Round 3

65 TEXANS Daryn Colledge T/G Boise State
66 TEXANS Anthony Fasano TE Notre Dame
67 PACKERS Taitusi Lutui G USC
68 49ERS Roman Harper S Alabama
69 RAIDERS Maurice Drew RB UCLA
70 BILLS Oshinowo Babtunde DT Stanford
71 TEXANS (from NYJ) Greg Blue S Georgia
72 CARDINALS Joe Klopfenstein TE Colorado
73 BILLS Thomad Howard OLB UTEP
74 LIONS Charles Spencer G Pittsburgh
75 PATRIOTS Elvis Dumervil OLB Louisville
76 LIONS (from PHI) Brodie Croyle QB Alabama
77 RAMS Orien Harris DT Miami
78 BROWNS Devin Hester CB Miami
79 FALCONS Cedric Griffin CB Texas
80 COWBOYS Andrew Whitworth T/G LSU
81 CHARGERS Bernard Pollard S Purdue
82 DOLPHINS Jeremy Trueblood OT Boston College
83 VIKINGS Kai Parham LB Virginia
84 REDSKINS Rob Sims G Ohio State
85 CHIEFS Ray Edwards DE Purdue
86 PATRIOTS Mark Anderson OLB Alabama
87 GIANTS Daniel Bullocks S Nebraska
88 BEARS Derek Morris OT NC State
89 PANTHERS Demetrius Williams WR Oregon
90 BUCCANEERS Derek Hagan WR Arizona State
91 BENGALS Anwar Phillips CB Penn State
92 JAGUARS AJ Nicholson OLB Florida State
93 BRONCOS Leon Washington RB Florida State
94 COLTS Danieal Manning CB/S Abilene Christ.
95 SEAHAWKS Dwayne Slay S Texas Tech
96 STEELERS Parys Haralson OLB Tennessee


At 5:10 PM, Anonymous IAmTheShow said...

If the JETS are gonna move up, they will be taking Reggie, a true NFL prospect, not Young, who is suspect. And Houston will take D'Brick. Carr was sacked more than Denver's QBs in the last 3 years. And though Manny Lawson is intruiging, he does not have the history to warrant the 12th pick.

At 1:05 AM, Blogger Birdman said...

show-Thanks for the comment. And I can see your points--and you're not alone. But here's where I'm coming from with those picks.

Bush isn't any more bulletproof than Young as a prospect. In fact, physically, you could argue Young has fewer weaknesses.

With Houston, its not like I left the o-line unattended in this mock. They came away with two very good prospects in McNeill and Colledge. Both good pass blockers and both future starters. I'd take what I gave Houston any day over Ferguson and whatever DE was available in round 2. I think Ferguson is vastly overrated by most.

As for Lawson at #12. He's a freak and you can't teach what he has. You'll be surprised how high he goes. Its not like he's some chump that didn't produde either. And in a 3-4 scheme, his main weakness at DE (stout vs. run) is a non-factor.

At 12:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Second pick in the second round--49ers take Ernie Sims ... Your pick--Jennings is no better than the CBs on the current 49er roster.

At 5:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your mock draft is completely flawed. I see some of your points so I won’t argue with them. But some of your picks are just too far-fetched. Cromartie is a great player but he just came off a major injury. St. Louis will not risk it that early with Williams still on the board. Especially since Cromartie might even drop to them in the second(which I doubt will happen though). St. Louis picks Vernon Davis if he’s there. I like Lawson better than Hawk, so I don’t mind him going that high. The 49ers second round picks are in question as well. Why convert a project DE to OLB when you have proven ones still there in Ernie Sims and Thomas Howard? With their 3rd pick, the bigger hole is WR, not CB. In the 3rd round, safety isn’t that big of a concern either. Nolan likes Emanuel to replace Parrish when he retires and is already going to give Rumph a chance. And if they do, Greg Blue is the choice there. The biggest flaw you have on this draft though…where in the world is CHAD JACKSON? He’ll probably be the second taken after Holmes, maybe third behind Moss. But no way in hell will he slip out of the 2nd round.

At 2:46 AM, Blogger Birdman said...

Wimbley is a fast, passrushing undersized DE. The 49ers run a 3-4. In a 3-4 defense the OLBs are more like ends than traditional linebackers. In fact, it used to be refered to as a 5-2 defense for that very reason. Rushing the passer will be his calling. He's a perfect fit. Howard and Sims are not.

CB and FS are the bigger draft needs for SF than WR. They already have young guys who need PT at wideout. If there was a stud #1 guy, okay. But there isn't. A starting caliber CB and FS will be added for certain. Harper is just a better football player than Blue, IMO.

Its also no coincidence that three of the four SF picks were on Mike Nolan's squad at the Senior Bowl. And all of them fit what Nolan likes in a player and had good weeks in Mobile.

As for Cromartie, he'll be checked out by every team's doctors at the combine. Then again on team visits. If he's healthy and running 4.3s, as reported, he'll go higher than you think and might not get past SF at pick 6/7. Just the way it is in the NFL with tall corners who can cover.

Just not a big fan of Chad Jackson's. But with a lot up in the air with the wideouts, he could go just about anywhere. Eye of the beholder with this WR crop right now. You can put Greg Lee and Martin Nance in that group too.

Daryl Tapp is another player who surprisingly didn't get selected.

At 2:52 AM, Blogger Birdman said...

PS. I'll get a little more in-depth with the 49ers in my team draft spotlights. They are the first team up.

At 6:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Santonio Holmes wouldnt even start for the Chargers so that would be a bad pick. Sure they could use a WR, but it isnt their biggest need at all. OT is ..and perhaps two of them and then CB/FS..perhaps a hybrid type .

Also i think that pick for the Texans would be a huge mistake.
No way do you pass on a franchise type LT when you have had THE worst pass protection in the NFL for four years running. They just extended would be a waste not to get him some real good OL to help him out for a change.

At 9:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you were the Saints, and Reggie Bush was still available, wouldn't you take him? I know the Saints need a quarterback, but let's not forget that McCallister is coming off a major injury. However, nice job on the mock draft. If you have any interest, you can view my mock draft at


At 1:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I know everyone is saying brodie croyle is a good quarterback but i just dont think he has the talent and potential to be a threatening quarterback in the nfl

At 10:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Where's WR Chad Jackson; maybe I looked to fast.

At 10:09 AM, Blogger dboythedecoy said...

Where's Wr Chad Jackson

At 10:09 AM, Blogger dboythedecoy said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

At 2:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why do you see the packers taking D. Williams? They got Gado, Green and they have gapping holes on the Defense, plus why would the Jets give up two first rounders and not send Abraham Packing? They want a first round out of him and he wants out.

At 1:40 AM, Blogger Birdman said...

This mock was done February 11th. Ahman Green hadn't been re-signed yet and John Abraham hadn't been franchised or asked to be traded yet. Abraham would most likely be part of any deal, although it looks like New York is looking away from the draft for QB help and restructured Pennington's deal.

New mock up very soon.


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